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Validation For Monsoon Prediction using CAM Model (2015)
Weekly Validation
June 01-07 June 08-14 June 15-21
June 22-28 June 29 – July 05 July 06 - 12
July 13 - 19 July 20 - 26 July 27- Aug 02
Aug 03 - 09 Aug 10 - 16 Aug 17 - 23
Aug 24 - 30 Aug 31 - Sep 06 Sep 07 -13
Sep 14 - 20 Sep 22 -28
Monthly Validation
June 01-30 July 01-31 Aug 01-31
Sep 01-30
Seasonal Validation
May phase of prediction June phase of prediction
Quantitative Validation

Validation of Seasonal Forecast 2015

Table 1: Assessment of Weekly/Monthly Prediction of All-India Rainfall
(Average lead time of forecast is one week; all figures are in mm/day)

Week/Month Predicted AIR Observed AIR Bias RMSD CC Low Rain (0-5 mm/day) Moderate Rain (5-15 mm/day) High Rain (more than 15 mm/day)
CSI FAR BS ETS CSI FAR BS ETS CSI FAR BS ETS
June01-07 4.5 3.2 1.4 4.6 0.38 0.64 0.14 0.84 0.12 0.20 0.74 1.74 0.08 0.08 0.83 0.86 0.07
June08-14 4.7 6.0 -1.3 6.5 0.44 0.59 0.28 1.07 0.19 0.26 0.61 1.16 0.08 0.09 0.50 0.19 0.07
June15-21 5.2 7.1 -1.9 7.4 0.49 0.53 0.30 0.98 0.18 0.32 0.58 1.40 0.11 0.08 0.00 0.08 0.07
June22-28 6.7 8.2 -1.5 6.1 0.56 0.47 0.32 0.90 0.24 0.46 0.45 1.33 0.16 0.19 0.33 0.32 0.16
June29-05 7.8 4.1 3.7 4.9 0.45 0.45 0.11 0.54 0.17 0.32 0.61 1.69 0.08 0.00 1.00 5.25 -0.02
July06-12 6.9 8.6 -1.8 7.2 0.51 0.63 0.24 1.02 0.42 0.36 0.54 1.36 0.12 0.09 0.71 0.39 0.02
July13-19 8.2 7.2 1.0 7.3 0.21 0.40 0.27 0.65 0.19 0.38 0.52 1.39 0.08 0.07 0.87 1.05 0.01
July20-26 8.3 11.6 -3.3 9.7 0.19 0.26 0.56 0.89 0.10 0.30 0.61 1.50 -0.04 0.12 0.60 0.36 0.04
July27-02 9.0 8.9 0.1 9.6 0.23 0.21 0.52 0.57 0.00 0.19 0.76 2.02 -0.05 0.22 0.52 0.59 0.13
Aug03-09 7.3 7.0 0.2 7.6 0.04 0.30 0.36 0.58 0.07 0.32 0.64 2.02 0.05 0.00 1.00 0.33 -0.04
Aug10-16 5.6 6.9 -1.3 4.3 0.53 0.62 0.32 1.31 0.38 0.540.24 0.85 0.29 0.11 0.60 0.31 0.09
Aug17-23 6.1 6.9 -0.9 6.8 0.32 0.36 0.38 0.75 0.10 0.36 0.56 1.56 0.04 0.00 NaN 0.00 0.00
Aug24-30 6.5 5.0 1.6 5.2 0.38 0.41 0.21 0.57 0.12 0.33 0.63 2.05 0.08 0.08 0.50 0.18 0.07
Aug31-06 6.2 3.5 2.7 4.5 0.39 0.51 0.08 0.58 0.15 0.28 0.70 2.85 0.12 0.00 1.00 0.13 -0.00
Sept07-13 5.7 3.5 2.2 4.4 0.21 0.43 0.17 0.57 0.09 0.31 0.66 2.21 0.09 0.00 NaN 0.00 0.00
Sept14-20 4.7 6.0 -1.3 6.2 0.27 0.50 0.31 0.92 0.14 0.35 0.57 1.50 0.13 0.00 NaN 0.00 0.00
Sept21-27 4.0 5.3 -1.3 6.4 -0.06 0.50 0.33 1.00 0.03 0.21 0.70 1.28 0.03 0.00 1.00 0.06 -0.00
Sept21-27 4.0 5.3 -1.3 6.4 -0.06 0.50 0.33 1.00 0.03 0.21 0.70 1.28 0.03 0.00 1.00 0.06 -0.00
June01-30 5.2 6.0 -0.8 3.2 0.76 0.63 0.19 0.92 0.36 0.51 0.39 1.24 0.27 0.29 0.00 0.29 0.27
July01-31 7.6 8.2 -0.6 5.3 0.36 0.27 0.55 0.90 0.11 0.49 0.41 1.26 0.04 0.04 0.67 0.12 0.02
Aug01-31 6.0 6.7 -0.7 4.5 0.33 0.41 0.40 0.93 0.18 0.52 0.36 1.15 0.14 0.00 NaN 0.00 0.00
Sept01-30 4.9 6.7 -1.8 4.5 0.29 0.39 0.50 1.25 0.11 0.41 0.38 0.91 0.08 0.00 NaN 0.00 0.00



Table 2: Analysis of All-India Rainfall based on different Lead-Time Prediction of CAM
(All figures are in mm/day)

Lead Time No of Forecast Bias RMSD CC Low Rain (0-5 mm/day) Moderate Rain (5-15 mm/day) High Rain (more than 15 mm/day)
CSI FAR BS ETS CSI FAR BS ETS CSI FAR BS ETS
One-Week 13 -0.2 7.1 0.35 0.47 0.28 0.80 0.19 0.34 0.58 1.52 0.08 0.10 0.71 0.44 0.06
Two-Week 13 -0.5 7.1 0.33 0.40 0.33 0.74 0.13 0.35 0.59 1.64 0.07 0.08 0.64 0.25 0.05
Three-Week 13 -0.6 7.2 0.29 0.38 0.34 0.73 0.12 0.34 0.60 1.68 0.06 0.06 0.67 0.22 0.04
Four-Week 13 -0.4 7.1 0.24 0.40 0.33 0.74 0.12 0.34 0.59 1.69 0.07 0.03 0.79 0.16 0.01

AIR : All-India Rainfall
RMSD: Root Mean Square Difference
CC : Correlation Coefficient
CSI : Critical Success Index
FAR : False Alarm Ratio
BS : Bias Score
ETS : Equitable Threat Score